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As the new millennium is now upon us, we can stop
to reflect on the amazing evolution our society has experienced in the
past century and especially in the last decade. From the industrial
revolution to the information revolution, we have sustained exciting
changes that have literally and completely altered the way we shop, do
business and market products. Truly, the Internet has changed
everything, from the way we shop to the way we live.
And according to analysts, the information revolution is nearing its
peak as we are now entering the next, "big" technological revolution.
What is it? Well, in the tradition of new-year predictions often made
by futurists, economists and psychics, here's what I think what we
should watch out for in the coming 2000's ... First, wireless
is going to be huge.
Since Nortel Networks at
http://www.nortelnetworks.com has recently unveiled their new
fiber optic technology the wireless community has been jumping.
According to Cnet, statistics giant Jupiter Communications predicts
that all wireless broadband technologies, including satellite
services, "will claim about 10 percent of the high-speed Internet
market by year 2003" (read the article at
http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1004-200-1475148.html).
Harry Dent, who wrote the book "The Roaring
2000's," originally predicted that the Internet would be completely
accessed through the power grid -- in other words, the web would be
connected through electrical outlets. But the problem is that, in some
countries, this is near to impossible due to their complex
infrastructure. In the UK for example, each transformer can feed up to
250 homes as opposed to only 5 here in North America.
For this very reason many companies, which have originally jumped on
the power grid bandwagon, have abandoned their efforts. But the
explosive need for bandwidth will nonetheless push for a better
solution. So I predict that fiber optic technology is the future, and
WAP ("Wireless Application Protocol"), wireless servers and wireless
ISPs being the "next big thing."
During a presentation to my ebusiness class, Peter Robinson, a product
manager for Entrust Technologies, spoke about a recent
advertisement from cellular phone company Ericsson, which consisted of
two simple lines. The top said in big, bold letters, "WAP," followed
by an asterisk. The bottom simply added, "For those who want to go
lap-topless."
Think of the numerous possibilities that this provides us Internet
entrepreneurs and marketers. Keep in mind that wireless communications
will go far beyond mobile phones and palm-sized digital assistants (or
"PalmPilots"). Wireless technology opens many new doors and I firmly
believe that it will provide many opportunities let alone challenges.
New products can be created. New distribution channels can be opened.
New marketing processes can be developed. And new online business
models can be developed.
Certificate authority Entrust Technologies (at
http://www.entrust.net) mentioned earlier -- a local company
here in Ottawa (Canada) where I live, teach and do business -- were
the first to introduce digital certificates for WAP servers, thereby
enabling ecommerce through wireless communications. Imagine browsing
your web site and ordering your product on a laptop, palm pilot or
cellular phone -- securely and instantly, anywhere in the world.
According to a recent article published by
the WAP Forum, "Entrust is building the framework that will allow
mobile phones to be not only the ubiquitous consumer and ebusiness
transaction 'on-ramp' to next generation ecommerce, but the global
point-of-sale terminal of choice" (read the article at
http://www.wapforum.org/new/121699_entrust.htm).
Now, would it be safe to say that web marketers should include
wireless communications in their portfolio right now? Not really. But
WAP, which will soon require separate web sites (designed specifically
for wireless communications) hosted on distinct servers using CDPD (or
"Cellular Digital Packet Data"), should be something into which one
should look.
For more information, see:
(Incidentally, the latter of
these offers a free download called WAPman, a Windows
application providing an WAP-like interface on your desktop, so that
you can surf wireless sites as if it were a cellular telephone or
palmpilot.)
I do believe WAP and wireless are going to be huge. It's not only due
to the fact that wireless will enable ecommerce in a more impulsive,
economical and efficient manner (i.e., people browsing the web and
ordering online what they want, where they want and when they want),
or that LANs, Intranets and Extranets will be devoid of wrangling
cables, but also because wireless will create a whole new ebusiness
model with so many applications.
Dylan Tweney, one of my respected Internet gurus, said in a recent
article that the world is going wireless (http://tweney.com/archive/future.htm).
The following is a quote from Tweney's article, which is a real
eye-opener:
"Wireless technologies will help integrate the Internet into our
lives in obvious, in your-face ways: The web browser on your handheld,
the GPS (or 'Global Positioning System') and mapping device in your
car, the ability to trade stocks on your cell phone. But they will
also affect us in subtler, under-the-hood ways: The web server in your
car's engine that sends information to your mechanic. The IP network
that lets your home appliances communicate with one another and with
central control systems. The office network that doesn't require you
to pull cable through the whole building."
In short, it's all about broadband -- which is my second prediction
(again, the growth of fiber optic technology). Fiber optics is growing
at incredible speeds, simply because, with single strand fibers now
able to carry over 6 terrabytes per second) people are realizing that
fiber optics is an effective technology. Take a look at news reports
-- seldom do you see today reports that say "Live via satellite." It's
the beauty of fiber optics. No more cable, DSL or modems. Everything
will (literally) be in the palm of your hand in a nanosecond.
My final prediction (but not my last) is the eruption of vortals (or
vertical portals). Niche marketing is the wave of the future because
of the explosive rate of competition and population on the web. As I
mentioned previously, statistics prove that the marketplace is
becoming more and more fragmented, and therefore becoming more
difficult to access. Take for instance the TV. In the 70's, there were
only 12 channels. But with the help of satellites, fiber optics and
digital technology, we are now faced with over 500 of them.
Simply put, today people are bombarded and overwhelmed with
information -- and they are so at an increasingly dizzying rate.
Therefore, when it comes to the Internet, trying to find specific
kinds of information, stores or products (especially online from, say,
generalized portals) is now quite a dizzying task. In short, people
are simply drowning in CHOICE.
This is where the growing popularity of niche-based portals comes in.
Rather than searching for a site on AltaVista and *maybe* coming up
with a relevant search result (which may appear on the 1,000th page),
a vortal provides very specific, industry-based search results. Take
http://www.iVillage.com, a portal that caters to women only,
or
http://www.ProfessionalCity.com, a portal dedicated to
professionals such as lawyers.
In essence, the adage "less is more" is indeed important on the web
and it will be even more so in the 2000's and beyond. Too many
Internet marketers blindly attempt to be "all things to all people"
and fail to capture the essence of the Internet -- which is to corner
a specific niche (a theme or idea) in a global marketplace. As for a
marketing strategy, it is simpler due to the fact that the web lacks
physicality and target markets are a challenge to find.
An excellent article by Richard Benvin of Absolute Authority (a vortal-like
site catering to gurus in various industries), entitled "Vertical
Portals: The Hottest New Trend on the Net?" (see
http://www.absoluteauthority.com/), explains the vortal's
growing trend from the Internet marketer's perspective.
Nevertheless, aside from the wireless boom ecommerce is surely going
to take a big place in the next year if not millennium. Also, Internet
marketing will undergo many changes. While the basics will never
change, new emerging technologies, business models, online
applications, webmaster resources and marketing techniques will surely
continue to grow.
This is why it is so important, for you the Internet marketer or
entrepreneur, to remain abreast of these exciting changes -- an
opportunity may be waiting just around the corner. Having fresh
information is crucial to your survival. Therefore, let us ask you
this final question: Will keeping your business and marketing arsenal
up-to-date be your new year's resolution?
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